FXUS02 KWBC 210756

PMDEPD



Extended Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

356 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Valid 12Z Wed Jun 24 2026 - 12Z Sun Jun 28 2026





***Additional heavy rain for the Central Plains and very hot

 conditions for the Desert Southwest through Friday***



...General Overview...



A quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern will be in place across the

country for the beginning of the period Wednesday. An upper level 

ridge will build across the Desert Southwest into portions of the 

Intermountain West, with increasing heat through the end of the 

week. A lingering frontal boundary draped across the Mid-South to 

the central Plains, coupled with some shortwave energy aloft, will 

fuel the development of multiple thunderstorm complexes that will 

bring episodes of heavy rainfall. By next weekend, an organized 

low pressure system and cold front cross the northwestern quadrant 

of the country and will herald the arrival of cooler weather for

much of the Western U.S.





...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...



The 00Z model guidance suite featured good overall synoptic scale

agreement overall for much of the week, with good overall consensus

on the upper trough/closed low dropping south across the Pacific

Northwest towards the end of the week. The GFS has trended closer

to the consensus across the northern Rockies and Intermountain West

compared to earlier runs that indicated a lead trough cutting

across the ridge axis. More model differences are apparent by next

weekend as the trough reaches the northern Rockies and the

downstream ridge that builds ahead of it across the Midwest states.

The ensemble means were increased to about half by next Sunday. The

NBM was a reasonable starting point for most areas of the country,

although QPF was raised across portions of the interior Southwest

U.S. for Wednesday through Friday, and temperatures lowered for

coastal areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.





...Weather/Hazards Highlights...



The weather pattern will remain quite unsettled from the central

Plains to the ArkLaTex region through the middle of the week with 

multiple rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rainfall expected. This

is in association with a frontal boundary that will be in place 

across this region, with anomalous moisture surging north and 

fueling the convection that develops. Going into the end of the 

week, the heaviest rainfall is expected from eastern Kansas to

central Illinois where additional thunderstorm complexes are 

expected to develop and lead to periods of heavy rainfall, and this

will likely be the case for the Ohio Valley going into Saturday.



Temperatures are expected to be very pleasant by late June 

standards across a large expanse of the north-central states 

through much of next week, with highs generally in the 70s and 

comfortable humidity levels given the overall dip in the jet stream

and broad upper trough in place. Most of the Mid- Atlantic and 

Northeast should be close to seasonal averages with highs mainly in

the upper 70s to upper 80s. With the upper ridge over the West 

through Friday, heat is expected to build from the Desert Southwest

to the Pacific Northwest, with highs generally running 5 to 10 

degrees above normal in many cases. A pattern change is expected to

arrive next Saturday as a cold front drops south across the 

Pacific Northwest and brings an end to the heat wave there. Hot and

humid conditions will continue unabated across the Deep South and 

Gulf Coast region.



Hamrick





Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC 

medium range hazards outlook chart at: 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php



WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, 

quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, 

winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages

are at:



https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml 

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw











$$