FXUS01 KWBC 210811

PMDSPD



Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

410 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Valid 12Z Sun Jun 21 2026 - 12Z Tue Jun 23 2026



...Impactful flash floods and severe storms expected over the

Plains and Midwest today; scattered flash flooding possible

tomorrow across a large area from the Northeast to the Southern

Plains tomorrow...



...Sweltering heat remains over the Southeast, while a pair of

cold fronts brings mild conditions in the to the Northern Tier of

the Central/Eastern U.S.... 



A low pressure system forecast to sweep through the Plains today

will maintain the threat of potentially impactful flash flooding

and severe weather over the Central and Eastern U.S. through early

next week as it interacts with a potent summertime airmass. The

Central/Southern Plains and Midwest can expect a noisy start to

the day as an organized thunderstorm complex rumbles eastward

along a returning warm front this morning. The ongoing activity

and eventual redevelopment of storms this afternoon across the

Plains and Midwest have our attention for the potential to produce

impactful flash flooding owing to a combination of high rainfall

rates and saturated soil in the region. Severe weather remains a

concern with the afternoon round as well, with parts of the

Plains, Ozarks, and Ohio Valley at risk for for large hail,

damaging wind, and a few tornadoes. By tomorrow morning, the main

surface low is expected to enter the Ohio Valley with the

emergence of a shortwave disturbance over the Ozarks.

Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the low and associated cold

front will prime the atmosphere for another round of showers and

thunderstorms capable of scattered severe weather and flash

flooding tomorrow afternoon across an expansive area from the

Northeast to the Northern High Plains. Meanwhile, isolated to

scattered flash flooding will remain possible across the Gulf

Coast and Southeast today along a weak surface trough and remnant

outflows from previous thunderstorms.



Despite generally near-average highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s

across the Southeast to Southern Plains, conditions will remain

uncomfortably hot through the next couple days with stifling

humidity present. Meanwhile, frontal passages today and tomorrow

will usher in below average highs to the Northern/Central Plains,

Midwest, and Northeast through the next few days.  Highs in the

70s will be common. A mostly near average to just above average

weekend continues across much of the Western U.S. with highs in

the 80s. Conditions  will trend hotter into early next week, with

highs rising into the 90s. Coastal regions will remain cooler and

in the 60s and 70s while the Desert Southwest will see highs in

the 100s.





Asherman





Graphics available at

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php









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