AXNT20 KNHC 211108

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1045 UTC.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 

03N to 16N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. This well-

defined in satellite imagery, with a atmospheric moisture 

maximum as noted on Total Precipitable Water (MIMIC-TPW) 

animation imagery. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N

to 07N between 24W and 30W. 



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N

to 17N moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate 

convection is within 180 nm east of the wave from 08N to 10N.



An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W/65W 

south of 19N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward at 

15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are east of the 

axis in the vicinity of the Windward Islands. Scattered showers 

and thunderstorms are well inland Venezuela within 180 nm east of 

the wave axis.



A western Caribbean tropical has wave moved inland Central America 

near 87W south of south of 19N. It is moving westward near 20 kt.

An upper level low near the Yucatan Peninsula is helping to sustain 

scattered moderate to isolated strong convection east of the 

northern portion of the wave from along the eastern coast of 

Honduras north to 19N between the wave and 83W. For future 

information on this wave, please see the eastern Pacific Tropical 

Weather Discussion (TWDEP).



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic ocean near 19N16W, 

and continues southwestward to 06N25W and westward to 07N35W to 

07N41W and to 06N44W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the

coast of South America near 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection

is within 180 nm south of the trough between 30W-35W, and 

within 120 nm north of the trough between 38W-41W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



High pressure ridging stretches westward from the western 

Atlantic to across Florida and to the central Gulf, reinforced by 

a 1016 mb high in the eastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between

the ridge and the relatively lower pressures over Texas and 

northeastern Mexico has induced moderate to fresh southeast

winds west of about 88W along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, 

light to gentle winds prevail along with seas of 2 to 4 ft.



Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is just inland

the coast of Mexico from 20N to 26N supported mainly by a mid-

level low feature and a nearby surface trough. Scattered showers 

and a few thunderstorms are over extreme southeast Texas.



For the forecast, the high pressure will change little through 

much of the week. The pressure gradient between the high pressure

and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico

will maintain mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and 

central Gulf through late Mon night before diminishing to gentle 

to moderate speeds. Slight to moderate seas will be with these 

winds. Light winds along with slight seas will be over the eastern

Gulf through Thu night as a new high center becomes situated over

the central Gulf.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for convection

across the basin. 



Broad high pressure is north of the basin over central Atlantic.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower

pressures in northern South America will continue to generally 

allow for fresh to strong trade winds across the central 

Caribbean and the western Caribbean south of 19N through Mon.

Seas over the south-central basin waters are 7 to 11 ft as 

confirmed by recent satellite altimeter passes and a few buoy 

observations. Seas are 4 to 6 ft south of 19N west of 80W. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere along with seas

of 5 to 7 ft, except for gentle to moderate east to southeast 

winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft over the waters south of Cuba to 

near 19N.



An area of scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection 

is confined to the southwestern section of the sea south of 12N 

and west of 78W to inland Panama, primarily due to the eastern 

segment of the East Pacific monsoon trough that reaches into that 

part of the basin.



For the forecast, the high pressure will prevail north of the 

area into next week. The pressure gradient between the high 

pressure and lower pressures in northern South America will 

support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in 

the central Caribbean through the forecast period. The trade winds

are expected to increase to near gale force across the central 

portion of the basin over a large area south of 15N, including 

along the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela starting 

Mon night through Tue night as Atlantic high pressure shifts 

southeastward. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with 

these winds. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough 

seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly well into the 

upcoming week. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of 

the remainder of the Caribbean through the middle portion of next 

week. A tropical wave currently in the eastern Caribbean near 65W 

will move across the rest of the eastern Caribbean this morning, 

and across the rest of the basin through late Wed. Scattered 

showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the wave.

A tropical wave has moved inland Central America, with trailing 

scattered moderate to isolated strong convection along the coasts 

of eastern Honduras and northeastern Nicaragua, and extending 

offshore to near 81W.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Broad high pressure that is anchored by a 1022 high center at 28N53W 

covers the area north of about 19N. The associated ridge axis near 

26N stretches west-southwestward along 25N/26N to South Florida and 

the Straits of Florida. The related pressure gradient is generally 

supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas across 

most of the Atlantic south of about 22N as indicated by overnight 

satellite scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds 

are north of 22N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in southeast swell 

west of 55W, except mixed with northwest swell north of 27N between 

55W and 74W, and primarily in northwest swell east of 55W. In the 

eastern part of the area, a stationary front is from 32N30W to near 

31N39W. No convection is present with this feature. A trough to its 

southwest is analyzed from near 31N29W to 28N35W and to 27N39W. 

Isolated mostly light showers are possible near this trough.



Upper-level jet dynamics along the southeastern periphery of a broad 

upper trough that is along the U.S. east coast are sustaining an 

area of scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 70W 

and 78W. A broad mid to upper-level low has helped to induce an area 

of multilayer clouds with embedded patches of rain and scattered 

showers over the waters northeast of the Lesser Antilles, roughly 

from 17N to 27N between 50W and 58W.



For the forecast west of 55W, the weak ridge along 25N/26N will 

shift slightly south today, and change little through Thu night as

surface troughing lingers near and offshore Florida. Moderate to 

fresh trade winds south of 24N will pulse to strong speeds between

the Turks and Caicos and Hispaniola through the forecast period.



$$

Aguirre