AWUS01 KWNH 210835

FFGMPD

MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211345-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0488

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

434 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Areas affected...west-central to eastern KS, western MO and

northeastern OK



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 210832Z - 211345Z



SUMMARY...Flash flooding will be likely across portions of central

and eastern KS and possibly into western MO and northeastern OK

through 14Z. Training of heavy rain is expected to coincide with

peak hourly rainfall of roughly 2 to 3 inches (locally higher) and

additional totals of 3 to 5+ inches on an isolated basis.



DISCUSSION...An expansive MCS continued to evolve over central KS

as of 08Z with an MCV identified about 50 miles NNE of ICT and a

preceding bowing line segment. A trailing band of thunderstorms

extended in a SE to NW arc from the southern most portion of the

leading bow, from between Hutchinson and Pratt to I-70 near

Oakley. Over the past 1-2 hours, there has been some cloud top

warming/weakening associated with the leading bowing segment

advancing ESE over southern KS between Wichita and Chanute but

plenty of instability remained along and south of the MCS track.

SPC mesoanalysis data showed an instability gradient from central

KS to the eastern MO/AR border, associated with a quasi-stationary

front that extended east to west across central KS, with 1000 to

2000+ J/kg of MLCAPE over southern KS, northern OK into southern

MO/northern AR.



The MCV will continue to track east over the next 6 hours with

possible continued weakening of the leading linear segment.

However, upstream thunderstorms over south-central KS have

strengthened over the past hour with additional thunderstorms over

west-central KS, advancing southeastward. Repeating rounds and

training of heavy rain are expected to result in areas of flash

flooding over portions of central to southeastern KS where peak

hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches is expected. Total rainfall of 3

to 5 inches (locally higher) will be possible on an isolated basis

with areas of flash flooding likely.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...GLD...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...

TSA...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   39769392 39569345 39409315 39139288 38819269 

            38449266 38049283 37549309 37099382 36679577 

            36699738 37209916 37880008 38540035 39039986 

            38859892 38709757 38919634 39159564 39679476