AWUS01 KWNH 210405

FFGMPD

KSZ000-210900-



Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0486

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD

1204 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Areas affected...portions of KS



Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely



Valid 210403Z - 210900Z



Summary...Areas of flash flooding are likely to develop over

portions of central KS tonight as thunderstorms repeat and train.

Hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches is expected to produce rainfall

maxima over 4 or 5 inches by 09Z.



Discussion...0345Z regional radar imagery across the central

Plains showed a complex evolution of thunderstorms with a bowing

MCS over southwestern KS, advancing toward the ESE. Additional

thunderstorms were located along and north of a quasi-stationary

front which was oriented roughly west-east across KS, including a

cluster of storms advancing into northeastern KS from southeastern

NE. The environment over central KS was supportive of organized

convection and contained 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 to 1.7 inch

precipitable water values (locally higher) based on 00Z soundings

from DDC and TOP and 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data. Upper level jet

support was robust across KS, out ahead of a lower amplitude and

somewhat broad shortwave trough over ID and WY.



As the leading bowing segment over southwestern KS likely tracks

toward the ESE, a strong low level jet of up to 50-60 kt over

west-central KS will continue to overrun rain-cooled air from the

MCS and the synoptic scale stationary front to the north. Low

pressure over eastern CO will begin to move eastward by 06Z into

western KS with the low level jet and forcing for ascent shifting

east with time as well. Elevated thunderstorms were already

ongoing across Rawlins and Decatur counties of northwestern KS

with advancement toward the ESE expected. Numerous thunderstorms

are expected over western, central and portions of northeastern KS

over the next 3-5 hours with areas of repeating and training

likely, leading to hourly rainfall of 2 to 3 inches in a few

places (locally higher possible). Expectations are for at least

localized high rainfall totals through 09Z, in the amount of 4 to

5+ inches, with areas of flash flooding likely.



Otto



...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...TOP...



ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...



LAT...LON   39940098 39929972 39829834 39649702 39429594 

            39019560 38439572 38089596 37579699 37669948 

            38000070 38770094 39280119 39590142 39820128