ACUS11 KWNS 211028

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 211027 

MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-211130-



Mesoscale Discussion 1227

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0527 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026



Areas affected...Southeast Kansas...Northeast Oklahoma...Southwest

Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362...



Valid 211027Z - 211130Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 362

continues.



SUMMARY...An isolated threat for damaging wind gusts will be

possible over the next couple of hours from southeast Kansas into

northeast Oklahoma and southwest Missouri. The threat should be too

isolated for additional weather watch issuance.



DISCUSSION...An MCS is ongoing from Kansas into far western

Missouri, on the northern side of an unstable airmass. The MCS is

being supported by strong warm advection and large-scale ascent

associated with a shortwave trough moving through the region. The

strongest part of the MCS is in southeast Kansas, where the RAP

estimates that MUCAPE is near 2000 J/kg and effective shear is

around 40 knots. This will be sufficient for an isolated severe

threat early this morning. The potential for severe wind gusts

should be maximized along the leading edge of any short bowing line

segment that can remain organized and surface-based. The severe

threat should become more isolated as inhibition continues to

increase.



..Broyles.. 06/21/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...



LAT...LON   38879460 38459482 38129515 37919567 37919631 37879698

            37719741 37469766 36999774 36569728 36389648 36339545

            36419476 36569417 36949363 37649330 38389326 38749340

            38989382 38999421 38879460 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN