ACUS11 KWNS 210447

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 210447 

MOZ000-KSZ000-210545-



Mesoscale Discussion 1223

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1147 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026



Areas affected...portions of eastern Kansas into far western

Missouri



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 210447Z - 210545Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Severe gusts may persist with ongoing storms for at least

a few more hours as the storms exceed the eastern bounds of ongoing

Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. A downstream Severe

Thunderstorm Watch is being considered.



DISCUSSION...A cold-pool-driven bow echo MCS (with mesovortices and

a pronounced rear-inflow jet) continue to track eastward across

central KS, with an uptick in convective intensities noted with line

segments flanking the MCS to the northeast, at the nose of a 700 mb

WAA regime. These storms are poised to continue tracking eastward

amid 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and locally lower MLCINH. Given

widespread 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear (oriented normal to the

MCS leading line) preceding ongoing storms and the aforementioned

buoyancy, it is plausible that a severe gust threat may continue

east of the bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watches 359 and 361. This

may especially be the case because MLCINH may only slowly increase

in eastern KS given a very moist boundary layer, characterized by

70+ F surface dewpoints. As such, conditions are being monitored for

the need of a downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.



..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...



LAT...LON   38289411 37629463 37519483 37269537 37099617 37089670

            37179694 37369703 39389598 39839543 39999464 39729408

            39079390 38289411 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN