ACUS11 KWNS 200153

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 200152 

INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-200315-



Mesoscale Discussion 2047

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0852 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...portions of southeastern Missouri into southern

Illinois...far northern Arkansas...western Kentucky...far

northwestern Tennessee



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 200152Z - 200315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The risk for severe hail is increasing, with some chance

also for a few damaging gusts or a tornado. Regarding the need for a

WW issuance, convective trends will continue to be monitored for

storms increasing in coverage and intensity.



DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across southern MO

into far northern AR, likely driven by convergence along the

terminus of an intensifying low-level jet. These storms are expected

to be largely elevated in nature per latest RAP forecast soundings.

Nonetheless, 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates above the stabilizing

boundary layer (per SGF and BNA 00Z observed soundings) is

contributing to 2000-3000 J/kg MUCAPE, as well as around 50 kts of

unidirectional (westerly) speed shear. Should a stronger updraft

intensity and become sustained, severe hail may occur. Surface-based

convection appears less likely, but should this occur, a supercell

may develop and pose the risk for damaging gusts or a tornado. 



At the moment, severe potential remains in question given the

anticipated elevated nature of the convection and relatively weak

deep-layer ascent. Furthermore, the latest high-resolution guidance

has not shown appreciable consistency in the placement, timing,

evolution, or morphology of anticipated convection. Therefore,

convective trends will continue to be closely monitored through the

evening for WW issuance potential.



..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/20/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...



LAT...LON   37439237 38349183 38589096 38699008 38808845 38568726

            37998709 36988744 36688813 36558952 36609064 36809225

            37439237 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN