ACUS11 KWNS 192159

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 192159 

NMZ000-COZ000-200000-



Mesoscale Discussion 2046

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0459 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...eastern New Mexico...eastern Colorado



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 192159Z - 200000Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A few instances of large hail and damaging wind will be

possible this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has increased in coverage along

the high terrain across eastern New Mexico and eastern Colorado this

afternoon. This activity will slowly spread into the lower plains

through the afternoon and evening. 



Deep layer shear for organization is best across eastern Colorado,

with weaker shear across eastern New Mexico. The most favorable

instability also resides across eastern Colorado. A few isolated

supercells with large hail will be possible initially. Large dew

point depressions and steep low level lapse rates will likely lead

to outflow dominate storms and more of a threat for strong to severe

wind. Overall, this threat should remain too localized for watch

issuance.



..Thornton/Guyer.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...



LAT...LON   36370573 37240570 37910574 38940554 39250532 39390496

            39380460 38850406 37810371 36260398 35610422 34830460

            34460531 34540555 34790578 35000596 36370573 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN