ACUS11 KWNS 192152

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 192152 

OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-192315-



Mesoscale Discussion 2045

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0452 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...portions of northern and central Illinois...central

and northern Indiana...western Ohio



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 192152Z - 192315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may develop along a west-to-east

oriented boundary through the remainder of the afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have been increasing in

intensity along a diffuse west-to-east oriented boundary extending

from central and northern Illinois into western Ohio. Along this

boundary, over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is in place, along with substantial

0-3 km CAPE (150-175 J/kg). Furthermore, an 80 kt 300 mb jet streak

is overspreading the OH Valley, contributing to 50+ kts of effective

bulk shear (mainly speed shear in the mid to upper levels per RAP

forecast soundings). Given these conditions, the current thinking is

that a few of the stronger storms along this baroclinic boundary may

become transient supercellular, capable of producing a couple

instances of severe wind/hail or even a brief tornado.



..Squitieri/Guyer.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...



LAT...LON   40218970 40349089 40539121 40689113 40989078 41398787

            40708286 40268248 39988279 40058660 40218970 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN