ACUS11 KWNS 192042

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 192042 

KSZ000-192245-



Mesoscale Discussion 2044

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0342 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...Northwest Kansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 192042Z - 192245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...An isolated supercell appears possible based on recent

satellite trends. Isolated large hail and severe winds are possible

should a storm develop. A watch is not likely.



DISCUSSION...An area of agitated cumulus has developed in northwest

Kansas over the last hour along a weak surface cold front. Very weak

ascent aloft from a glancing shortwave trough in the central Plains

could allow an isolated supercell to develop. Visible satellite

trends and some recent CAM guidance would suggest storm initiation

is probable, though not certain. The environment would support

isolated large hail and severe winds. Given the lack of greater

upper-level support, coverage and duration of severe intensity will

likely be limited.



..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...



LAT...LON   38740159 39120170 39480144 39400072 39050024 38760017

            38510049 38410106 38740159 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN