ACUS11 KWNS 192008

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 192008 

NMZ000-AZZ000-192245-



Mesoscale Discussion 2043

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0308 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...parts of east central and southeastern Arizona



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 192008Z - 192245Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to slowly increase and

spread westward off the higher terrain through 2-4 PM MST.  A severe

weather watch may be needed at some point, once storms begin to

consolidate into an evolving cluster, but this may not be until

later this evening.



DISCUSSION...Substantive destabilization is ongoing across much of

central and southern Arizona, within a seasonably moist air mass

boosted by a recent surge from the Gulf of California.  Latest

objective analysis indicates that strongest potential instability

has become focused to immediate southwest and west of the higher

terrain of east central into southeastern Arizona, where inhibition

has been eroding most appreciably.  As this continues over the next

few hours, a slow propagation off the higher terrain straddling the

southern Arizona/New Mexico border may commence by 21-23Z, with

strong downbursts posing increasing potential for strong to severe

surface gusts within a strongly heated and deep mixed

boundary-layer.  Increasing thunderstorm development closer to the

southeastern Arizona international border may also begin to impact

the Tucson vicinity.



..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...



LAT...LON   34381124 33891042 33451018 32550860 31370931 31091055

            31251136 31741145 32811055 34071176 34381124 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN