ACUS11 KWNS 192000

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 192000 

ARZ000-MOZ000-192200-



Mesoscale Discussion 2042

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...Portions of southern Missouri into far northern

Arkansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 192000Z - 192200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...The threat for damaging winds, isolated large hail, and

perhaps a tornado or two will eventually increase within parts of

the Ozarks this afternoon. Timing of storm initiation is not

certain, but a watch may eventually be needed.



DISCUSSION...As cloud cover from earlier convection has cleared,

cumulus agitation is noted in southwest Missouri along a

quasi-dryline-like feature. Temperatures to the southwest of this

boundary have risen into the low 100s F. Destabilization has

occurred to the east of the boundary as well, though some MLCIN is

still evident. 35-40 kt of effective shear across this boundary will

promote eventual supercell development. Given the majority of the

shear exists within the lower half of the troposphere, it is not

certain how long a supercell mode will be maintained. Damaging

winds, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two will be

possible. A very modest increase in low-level flow during the

evening will mean a modest increase in tornado potential should

supercell modes exist beyond 00Z. A watch is possible this

afternoon, though timing remains uncertain.



..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...



LAT...LON   36319370 37089391 37899316 38129136 37379050 36589061

            36249072 35949172 36319370 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN