ACUS11 KWNS 191931

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191930 

MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-192100-



Mesoscale Discussion 2041

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0230 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...Northwestern Missouri into far northeast Kansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 



Valid 191930Z - 192100Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent



SUMMARY...Continued eastward progress of an organized bowing segment

and potential supercells ahead of the linear convection will pose a

threat for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and possibly a

brief tornado. A watch is likely this afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Ample surface heating has occurred in between areas of

cloud cover in northern Missouri and adjacent northeast Kansas and

far southern Iowa. In southeastern Nebraska a small bowing segment

with a history of wind damage and measured severe wind gusts will

generally move into this relatively more favorable zone. Effective

shear of 45-50 kt will continue to promote storm organization. As

the bowing segment takes a more easterly track into more buoyant

air, the line will be more orthogonal to the deep-layer shear.

Additionally, a supercell or two is evident near the Missouri river.

These storms would be capable of large hail and perhaps a brief

tornado. A watch will likely be needed.



..Wendt/Smith.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...



LAT...LON   39599484 39909559 40409581 40759542 40759415 40499294

            39969276 39589322 39509373 39599484 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN