ACUS11 KWNS 191929

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191929 

ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-192200-



Mesoscale Discussion 2040

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0229 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...parts of eastern Mississippi into southern Alabama



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 191929Z - 192200Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm development is likely through 5-7

PM CDT, accompanied by localized damaging downbursts and at least a

bit more widespread strong, but generally sub-severe, wind gusts. 

Due to the disorganized and generally localized nature of the more

intense gusts, a severe weather watch is not currently anticipated,

but trends will be monitored.



DISCUSSION...Forcing for thunderstorm development remains unclear,

but perhaps aided by weak near-surface warm advection, initiation of

widely scattered thunderstorms appears underway within a broadly

confluent low-level regime across eastern Mississippi into southern

Alabama.  This is occurring in the presence of light (10 kt or less)

north-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow, but thermodynamic profiles

characterized by a strongly heated, seasonably high moisture content

boundary layer, with steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates of

potential wet-bulb temperature. 



Heavy precipitation loading, coupled with evaporative cooling, may

contribute to localized damaging downbursts in the initially more

widely scattered strongest storms.  Gradually,

colliding/intersecting outflow may contribute to increasing

thunderstorm development with continuing potential for strong

surface gusts into early evening.



..Kerr/Smith.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...



LAT...LON   33788926 33668742 31508581 30828680 31098831 32058932

            33008981 33788926 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH