ACUS11 KWNS 190622

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 190622 

KSZ000-COZ000-190745-



Mesoscale Discussion 2035

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0122 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Areas affected...Northeast and east-central Colorado...western

Kansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 190622Z - 190745Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible during

the early morning hours posing a risk for damaging gusts and severe

hail. Convective trends will be monitored and a watch is possible

should signs of sufficient severe storm coverage become clearer.



DISCUSSION...Scattered clusters of strong, occasionally severe,

storms were in progress across northeast CO at 0615z with a report

of 64 mph at Akron. These storms were located within a seasonably

strong belt of west-northwesterly mid-level flow and around 40 kts

of westerly effective shear. The downstream thermodynamic

environment becomes progressively more unstable with eastward extent

with MUCAPE averaging 2000 J/kg, locally higher, across western KS.



Latest short-range guidance suggests these elevated clusters of

storms will continue moving southeast into western KS during the

pre-dawn hours with isolated instances of strong/severe gusts and

hail possible.  It remains unclear whether the severe storm coverage

would warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, however convective trends

will continue to be monitored, and a watch is possible should

short-term trends suggest more than isolated coverage.



..Bunting/Mosier.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...



LAT...LON   39870331 39960228 39559988 38899962 38389973 38080001

            37970158 38110317 38400404 39270413 39870331 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN