ACUS11 KWNS 190047

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 190046 

MOZ000-KSZ000-190315-



Mesoscale Discussion 2031

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0746 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026



Areas affected...portions of northern and northeastern Kansas into

western Missouri



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 190046Z - 190315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should increase through the evening and

early overnight hours, accompanied by a risk of severe hail and

perhaps a few severe gusts. If convective trends continue to

indicate an increase in storm coverage, a WW issuance may be needed.



DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are attempting to develop ahead

of a surface low, at the terminus region of a geostrophic low-level

flow regime. Here, 850 mb frontogenesis/convergence and warm-air

advection are maximized, likely resulting the intensifying storms.

Though the 00Z mesoanalysis depicts appreciable MLCINH over

northeast KS into western MO, isentropic lift should support the

increase in elevated convection above the inhibition layer, where

storms may take advantage of available instability (e.g. 7.5-9 C/km

mid-level lapse rates per 00Z regional observed soundings). 3000

J/kg MLCAPE amid 50 kts of effective bulk shear will support a mix

of multicells and supercells tonight, with severe hail and wind the

main threats. An instance or two of 2+ inch hail cannot be ruled

out. A WW issuance may be needed pending favorable trends in greater

storm coverage.



..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...



LAT...LON   39259832 39489729 39579572 39459427 39109349 38709350

            38469404 38449501 38459598 38539681 38609756 38709806

            39259832 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN