ACUS11 KWNS 182252 SWOMCD SPC MCD 182251 KSZ000-190015- Mesoscale Discussion 2030 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026 Areas affected...portions of central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182251Z - 190015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Convective trends are being monitored for the conditional scenario that supercells develop over the next few hours. Should this occur, severe wind and hail would be likely. DISCUSSION...A thermal-induced surface low has materialized across central KS, resulting in the development of an effective dryline extending from roughly Rice to Butler Counties, and a weak cold front drifting southward roughly from Rush County and points west. Near the low and between these two boundaries, maximized convergence has resulted in an agitated CU field, with attempts at convective initiation noted. Thunderstorm development and maintenance is very uncertain in this scenario, with conditions both favorable and hostile convection noted. Deep-layer ascent is quite weak across central KS, with the 22Z mesoanalysis showing appreciable MLCINH in place, but the combination of strong heating and low-level convergence may compensate to support supercell development given the presence of 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE amid 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear. If supercells develop and sustain themselves, severe wind and hail may occur, and an instance of 2+ inch diameter hail cannot be ruled out. Convective trends will continue to be closely monitored for successful attempts at convective initiation. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/18/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38099894 38279929 38419937 38649932 38739920 38879838 38869751 38729686 38349671 38009679 37909729 37969811 38099894 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN