ACUS11 KWNS 182020

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 182020 

FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-182215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2027

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0320 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026



Areas affected...Central/eastern Gulf Coast into North Florida



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 182020Z - 182215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible this afternoon. A

watch is not expected.



DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has developed along the Gulf

breeze front within a very moist (low 70s F dewpoints), high PWAT

(2-2.5 in.) airmass. 12Z/18Z observed soundings from the region

showed poor mid-level lapse rates. This, and very weak shear, will

keep storms unorganized. However, water-loaded downdrafts may

produce locally damaging winds with low-level lapse having steepened

substantially this afternoon.



..Wendt/Guyer.. 08/18/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...



LAT...LON   30638949 30869014 31808990 32338818 31658615 31078521

            30788268 30668159 30388133 29548123 29618318 30238602

            30638949 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH