ACUS11 KWNS 180017

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 180016 

MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-180145-



Mesoscale Discussion 2019

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0716 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026



Areas affected...portions of eastern South Dakota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 180016Z - 180145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent



SUMMARY...At least a few severe gusts may occur with the stronger

storms that manage to intensify and become sustained. A WW issuance

is possible pending favorable intensification trends.



DISCUSSION...Scattered supercells and multicells continue to track

across central SD with a history of producing measured severe gusts.

MRMS mosaic radar trends suggest that some weakening of the ongoing

storms has taken place over the past hour or so, casting some

uncertainty to the long-term severe potential. Nonetheless, these

storms are preceded by a favorable thermodynamic and kinematic

environment. The 00Z ABR observed sounding depicted a buoyant

airmass and no MLCINH, with nearly 2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid an

elongated hodograph with over 30 kts of effective bulk shear. The

00Z mesoanalysis also depicted similar conditions present across

most of eastern SD. Such conditions would support a continued severe

gust threat into the evening hours. As such, convective trends will

continue to be monitored for the possibility of a Severe

Thunderstorm Watch issuance.



..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/18/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...ABR...LBF...



LAT...LON   43129660 42939704 42869789 43039896 43349940 44209867

            44879787 45709747 45879706 45769658 45359643 44609622

            43769628 43129660 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN