ACUS11 KWNS 172305

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 172304 

ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-180100-



Mesoscale Discussion 2018

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0604 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026



Areas affected...Northern Mississippi/Alabama into Southern Middle

Tennessee



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 172304Z - 180100Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible into the

evening.  The severe wind threat is expected to remain too isolated

for watch issuance.



DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed along a surface

boundary across the region with over 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE (per

RAP-based mesoanalysis).  Although these storms are developing in a

weak-shear environment, the thermodynamic environment supports a

threat of wet microbursts.  As these storms pulse up and

subsequently collapse, damaging wind gusts will be possible over the

next couple of hours.  Cold-pool clustering, as storms push to the

southeast, may enhance the damaging wind threat.  Given the isolated

spatiotemporal severe-weather threat (ending shortly after dark), a

severe-thunderstorm watch is unlikely.



..Jirak/Gleason.. 08/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...



LAT...LON   34718928 34878887 34788801 34808752 35048698 35208640

            35128611 34868574 34658558 34378562 34088589 34038630

            33978743 33998815 34298893 34408926 34718928 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH