ACUS11 KWNS 172138

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 172137 

MTZ000-172300-



Mesoscale Discussion 2014

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0437 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026



Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Montana



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 172137Z - 172300Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A few brief instances of severe gusts or large hail may

occur with the stronger, sustained storms through the evening hours.

A WW issuance is not expected given the anticipated isolated nature

of the severe threat.



DISCUSSION...Multiple multicells and a supercell have developed

ahead and behind a southward-sagging surface cold front over central

and eastern MT, which is being overspread by a 300 mb jet streak and

500 mb impulse. Given the aforementioned upper support, these storms

are expected to persist into the evening. 21Z mesoanalysis shows

steep tropospheric lapse rates in place, along with 40+ kts of

effective bulk shear. MRMS mosaic radar data suggests that severe

hail may already be falling with some of these storms, and the

aforementioned instability/vertical wind shear should support

continued severe wind/hail potential for at least a few hours. Total

buoyancy is limited however, so the severe threat should remain on

the sparse end, with a WW issuance currently not expected.



..Squitieri/Gleason.. 08/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...



LAT...LON   46701070 47660966 48100847 48070680 47500544 46610488

            45910472 45560490 45260548 45040695 45140816 45480915

            46181049 46701070 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN