ACUS11 KWNS 172101 SWOMCD SPC MCD 172100 MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-172230- Mesoscale Discussion 2013 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026 Areas affected...portions of western and central Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 172100Z - 172230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms will pose a risk for at least isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts through this evening across portions of western and central Minnesota. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development has occurred along a prefrontal trough/confluence zone in west-central Minnesota. Enhanced low-level moisture (dewpoints in the low-to-mid 60s F) along/ahead of this boundary is contributing to modest buoyancy of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, with additional destabilization expected through late afternoon. Strong mid- and upper-level westerly flow (30-35 kts sampled at 2-4 km AGL by the MVX VWP) and strengthening effective shear will promote updraft organization with supercells possible initially. While mid-level lapse rates remain modest (around 6 K/km), at least some potential for large hail is likely to exist with any supercells that develop/persist given elongated hodographs and appreciable buoyancy within the hail growth zone. Latest guidance continues to suggest that relatively rapid upscale growth into a forward-propagating linear/bowing cluster will then occur, which would favor a greater risk for damaging wind gusts. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to cover this risk. ..Chalmers/Guyer.. 08/17/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR... LAT...LON 46429672 46859671 47129661 47459604 47579506 47499410 47249346 46859314 46539303 45899301 45469314 45179358 45109454 45119532 45259598 45899658 46429672 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN