ACUS11 KWNS 171750

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 171749 

VAZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-171945-



Mesoscale Discussion 2011

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1249 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026



Areas affected...parts of southeastern Kentucky...southwestern

Virginia...eastern Tennessee and adjacent portions of western North

Carolina



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 



Valid 171749Z - 171945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent



SUMMARY...Potential for localized damaging downbursts will gradually

increase with increasing thunderstorm development through 5-6 PM

EDT.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe

weather watch.



DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently begun to develop and

intensify in a small cluster south of a remnant MCV now migrating

east-southeastward across eastern Kentucky.  This appears embedded

within modest west-southwesterly deep-layer ambient mean flow on the

order of 20-25 kt, but Rapid-Refresh output and VWP data suggest a

belt of flow on the order of 30-40 in the 700-500 mb layer to the

south of the MCV.



As a seasonably moist boundary layer continues to approach 90F ahead

of ongoing storms, and ahead of a weak, convectively generated or

augmented front trailing to the southwest of the MCV, boundary-layer

destabilization will probably support further intensification and

upscale growth of ongoing storms, as well as increasing new storm

development into the western slopes of the Appalachians.  Aided by

thermodynamic profiles with modestly steep lower to mid-tropospheric

lapse rates of temperature and potential wet-bulb temperature,

potential for localized damaging downbursts may increase through

20-21Z.



..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...OHX...



LAT...LON   37588245 37318078 36428137 35538340 35208470 35868574

            36878356 37588245 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH