ACUS11 KWNS 171532

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 171531 

ARZ000-OKZ000-171730-



Mesoscale Discussion 2010

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1031 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026



Areas affected...parts of west central into central Arkansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 



Valid 171531Z - 171730Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms may continue to pose a risk for

strong surface gusts approaching severe limits, with perhaps a

period of some increase in peak gusts, before probably weakening by

early afternoon.  It is not clear that this requires a severe

weather watch, but trends are being monitored.



DISCUSSION...The most prominent convection has become confined to a

shrinking, but still fairly vigorous core approaching the Fort Smith

vicinity.  There have been fluctuations in intensity, but a recent

increase may be associated with increasing updraft inflow of moist

air characterized by sizable CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.  Based on

Rapid Refresh output this is focused in a narrow corridor along and

north of a southward advancing baroclinic zone in the 925-850 mb

layer, which may continue to slowly advance southward across the

I-40 corridor of western through central Arkansas into midday.



Radar data indicates the continuing presence of strong inflow (on

the order of 50-70+ kt) into the rear of the convective system

near/above 1 km AGL.  However, aside from a severe gust to 51 kt at

Muskogee around 1421Z, peak surface gusts have mostly been near or

below 45 kt based on mesonet observations. 



Based on latest objective instability analysis, it is possible that

activity could be maintained into the 17-19Z time frame.  As it

approaches the Little Rock vicinity, a period of increasing

potential for severe gusts might not be out of the question, before 

possibly acquiring updraft inflow of drier/less unstable air and

weakening, as has generally been suggested by convection-allowing

guidance.



..Kerr/Guyer.. 08/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...



LAT...LON   35959447 35619282 35029276 34829337 35309465 35549453

            35959447 



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH