ACUS03 KWNS 191909

SWODY3

SPC AC 191908



Day 3 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0208 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Valid 211200Z - 221200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater than 2 inch

diamter) and severe wind gusts may occur over parts of the central

Plains late Friday afternoon and evening. Scattered storms, some

with severe wind gusts, are possible Friday afternoon over parts of

the Carolinas.



...Central Plains...



Northwest flow aloft will strengthen further on Friday, with 40-60

kt at 500 mb common across the Mid-MO Valley. At the surface, low

pressure will develop along surface troughing across western NE/KS.

Rich boundary-layer moisture will be in place across eastern NE/IA

and southward across the Lower MO Valley. A plume of steep midlevel

lapse rates will reside across the High Plains and spread eastward

toward the MO River during the evening. These steep lapse rates atop

the moist boundary layer will support a corridor of strong

instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE). Meanwhile, forecast soundings

indicate supercell wind profiles with nearly 50 kt effective shear

magnitudes and elongated/straight hodographs. 



Initial supercells should develop near the surface trough over

southwest SD/northwest NE, and shift southeast through evening,

posing a risk for large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts.

Forecast guidance depicts a 40 kt southwesterly low-level jet

developing across KS overnight. This may maintain clusters/promote

upscale growth into an MCS during the nighttime hours, spreading

southeast toward northwest MO by Saturday morning. If this occurs,

damaging wind potential could increase/become the predominant severe

hazard overnight. 



Additional more isolated storms could develop ahead of a

southward-advancing cold front across Iowa overnight. Any storms

that develop will likely be elevated, but will form in an

environment supporting severe hail. 



...Southeast...



Scattered to numerous storms are forecast within a very moist and

unstable environment along a surface trough extending northeast to

southwest from NC into GA/southeast AL. Vertical shear is expected

to remain very weak. Nevertheless, a mix of single and multi-cell

convection will pose a risk for wet microbursts during the afternoon

and early evening.



..Leitman.. 08/19/2026



$$