ACUS02 KWNS 191713

SWODY2

SPC AC 191712



Day 2 Convective Outlook  

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1212 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE

MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND

NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms are possible Thursday across parts of the

Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and

isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from

Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.



...Mid-Atlantic...



A midlevel shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward from the

Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening. This will

result in enhanced southwesterly flow atop a very moist boundary

layer. Strong heating along/east of a surface trough oriented from

northern MD through central VA/NC will support a corridor of

moderate destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near

a warm front across southern/central NJ south/southwest along the

surface trough into central/eastern VA/NC during the afternoon.

Effective shear magnitudes around 40 kt will support organized

cells, perhaps becoming linear segments with time. Damaging wind

gusts will be possible, supported further by steep low-level lapse

rates and high PW values. The strongest cells could also produce

hail. 



...TN Valley/Southeast...



A surface tough will extend southwestward from the NC Piedmont into

northern MS/central AR Thursday afternoon. A seasonally moist and

hot airmass will be in place, fostering moderate to strong

instability. Weak convergence along the surface boundary will

promote scattered thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be

weak, but thunderstorm clusters could produce damaging outflow gusts

with the steep lapse rates/high PW environment. Forecast soundings

also show so cooler temperature aloft, and isolated hail could

accompany strong storms across parts of northern MS and the TN

Valley. 



Further south into central/southern AL, southwest GA and the FL

Panhandle vicinity, isolated cells are expected within a similar

environment, but even weaker deep-layer flow is forecast.

Nevertheless, sporadic wet microbursts will be possible, posing a

risk for locally damaging gusts. 



...Central Plains to MN/WI...



Northwesterly flow aloft will increase Thursday afternoon into

evening. At the surface, weak low pressure will migrate east across

northern MN toward the U.P. of MI. As this occurs, a weak surface

front will develop southeast across the region. Ahead of this

boundary, modest boundary layer moisture will remain in place

(generally low to maybe mid-60s F dewpoints). Supercell wind

profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with elongated/straight

hodographs noted above 2-3 km. Isolated to widely scattered storms

will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for

large hail and locally damaging winds. With southward extent into

NE, a narrow corridor may exist for significant hail (greater than 2

inch diameter) given steep midlevel lapse rates/cool temperatures

aloft and somewhat higher boundary layer moisture compared to

further north. 



...AZ...



Easterly midlevel flow on the southern periphery of an upper

anticyclone over the Four Corners will remain in place on Thursday.

Modest boundary layer moisture will persist over lower elevations

amid the steep lapse rate environment. This will promote MLCAPE

around 1000-1250 J/kg. Thunderstorms will develop over higher

terrain during the late afternoon. Damaging wind potential will

increase as storms consolidate and propagate westward over the lower

elevations of central/southern AZ during the evening.



..Leitman.. 08/19/2026



$$