ABPW10 PGTW 200600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200151ZAUG2026//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200551ZAUG2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE

FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 20AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 11.4N 151.6E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH OF CHUUK, AND HAD

TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45

KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 200300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

23.0N 126.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR FORCE BASE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY

CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE

CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED

WINDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.

ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A

BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY DENSE CONVECTION

BUILDING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

REVEALS MOSTLY CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO

MODERATE (15 TO 20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS UNLIKELY TO

CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. FOR

HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO

HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST

AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 111.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY 25 NM

SOUTH OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)

POSITIONED OVER HAINAN AND OBSCURED BY WIDESPREAD MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL

CLOUDS. A 200159Z METOP-C ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH

ELEVATED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY AND 25 KT

WESTERLY WINDS HUGGING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN. WHILE THE

SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE, CHARACTERIZED BY LOW

TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20KTS), MODERATE EQUATORWARD

OUTFLOW, AND (28-30C) WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE DISTURBANCE

IS OVER LAND, WHICH WILL INHIBIT NEAR-TERM DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY

CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRANSITS NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF TONKIN OVER THE

NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO

28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTPN21 PGTW

200600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

33.2N 164.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 160.9E, APPROXIMATELY 969 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS

A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL

AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS INVEST 96W WITH A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND DEEP ASSOCIATED CONVECTION OVER

THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY

INHIBITS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTER, AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS

WRAPPING INTO THE CIRCULATION. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW 96W

TRANSITING NORTHWESTWARD AND DIMINISHING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW

WEAKENS AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE HOSTILE, WITH

TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEING UNLIKELY. FOR HAZARDS AND

WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND

SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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