ABPW10 PGTW 191030

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/191030Z-200600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190751ZAUG2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 19AUG26 0600Z, TROPICAL STORM 17W (SAUDEL) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 8.5N 154.1E, APPROXIMATELY 144 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF CHUUK, AND

HAD TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45

KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

22.5N 128.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 23N 126.7E, APPROXIMATELY 132 NM

SOUTHEAST OF MIYAKOJIMA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A

MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER

THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION

CENTER, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF TURNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LLCC.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT IS UNLIKELY TO

TRANSITION INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND

WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND

SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.0N 114.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 111.8E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HAIKOU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW -LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT

HAS BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. A 190155Z METOP-B

ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH EAST

OF HAINAN.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO

20KTS) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS OFFSET BY WARM

(29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER

DEVELOPMENT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY

AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN OVER

THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT

18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998

MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 33.2N

164.1E, APPROXIMATELY 842 NM NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND. THE SYSTEM IS

CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED

AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED

ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS INVEST 96W WITH A

FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND SPARSE

CONVECTION WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY THAT IS HEAVILY SHEARED FROM

THE SOUTH. THE HIGH SOUTHERLY SHEAR IS CAUSED BY A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL

CYCLONE DIRECTLY TO THE WEST OF 96W. EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA

REVEALED WINDS OF 35 KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, THUS, 96W IS

CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW

96W TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAKENING

WIND FIELD DUE TO EXTREME DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND HIGH VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR. TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ANALYZED TO BE HIGHLY

UNLIKELY DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CHARACTERISTICS

ALONG WITH COOL (24-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 33 TO 38 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS,

REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS

PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN

1.C.(1) AS A LOW.//

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