ABPW10 PGTW 190600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZAUG2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 19AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF

CHUUK, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 229 NM

SOUTH OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON

DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION,

GREATER THAN 600 NM DIAMETER, WITH ENHANCED WINDS OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION

CENTER, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF TURNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LLCC.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT IS UNLIKELY TO

TRANSITION INTO A CONSOLIDATED TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND

WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND

SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM

SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT HAS

BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. A 190155Z METOP-B ASCAT

PASS REVEALS A BROAD CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH EAST OF

HAINAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO

20KTS) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, IT IS OFFSET BY WARM

(29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER

DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY

AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENSEMBLE MODELS ALSO SHOW

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS HAINAN OVER

THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT

18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//

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