ABPW10 PGTW 190300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/190300Z-190600ZAUG2026//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190151ZAUG2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

      (1) AT 19AUG26 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF

CHUUK, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS

GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 190300) FOR FURTHER

DETAILS.

      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 128.3E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM

SOUTH OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A MONSOON

DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONE CIRCULATION,

GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER, WITH EXTENSIVE GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE

SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD CIRCULATION

CENTER, WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF TURNING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LLCC.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW (15 KNOTS OR LESS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL

DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN AREA OF BROAD TROUGHING THAT IS UNLIKELY TO

TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. FOR HAZARDS AND

WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND

SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 196 NM

SOUTH OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT HAS

BEEN CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LAST 6-12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

REVEALS MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH HIGH

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25 KNOTS) AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,

HOWEVER IT IS OFFSET BY WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH

ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONGER DEVELOPMENT.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT

95W WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND CONSOLIDATE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA,

WHILE TRANSITING OVER HAINAN OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA

LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO

MEDIUM//

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