ABPW10 PGTW 181500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/181500Z-190600ZAUG2026//

AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

(1) AT 18AUG21 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17W (SEVENTEEN) WAS

LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 154.9E, APPROXIMATELY 180 NM EAST OF CHUUK, AND HAD

TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO 35

KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

7.9N 154.9E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE

PARA. 1.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.7N 131.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 129.9E, APPROXIMATELY 404 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A

MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A VERY LARGE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER AND EXTENSIVE ELEVATED WINDS

OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 94W AS AN AREA

OF BROAD TURNING, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN

PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10 TO 15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,

AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OFFSET BY SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL

LOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL TRANSIT NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD BUT DOES NOT CONSOLIDATE INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE ON A SIMILAR TRACK AND INTENSITY AS THE GLOBAL

MODELS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN

DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED

FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT

22 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

19.5N 117.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.1E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) DEPICTS 95W AS A WEAK AREA OF TURNING WITH DISORGANIZED

CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR

DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO

20 KTS), WARM (29 TO 30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. FOR GLOBAL MODELS, GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO

DEVELOP 95W INTO A CONSOLIDATED CYCLONE. ENSEMBLE MODELS DO SHOW THE

STEADY DEVELOPMENT OF 95W, AND FOR IT TO TAKE A GENERAL SLOW WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA

IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING STATUS.//

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