ABPW10 PGTW 180100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/180100Z-180600ZAUG2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

9.2N 157.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 199 NM EAST

OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 92W

AS A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH TROUGHING CHARACTERISTICS. AN ASCAT

082257Z PASS REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST ASSOCIATED

WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) WRAPPING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (15

KNOTS OR LESS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM

(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS

THAT 92W WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY WHILE TRANSITING NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN A 24-48 HOUR PERIOD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE

WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO

MEDIUM.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

18.1N 132.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 582 NM

WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A

MONSOON DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS A LARGE CYCLONIC

CIRCULATION, GREATER THAN 600NM DIAMETER AND EXTENSIVE ELEVATED WINDS

OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY AND A WEAK CORE OF LIGHT WINDS.

ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS 94W AS AN AREA

OF BROAD TURNING, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING ON THE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERN

PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (15 KNOTS OR LESS) VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE CONDUCIVE

FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OFFSET BY SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW DUE TO AN UPPER-

LEVEL LOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 94W WILL TRANSIT NORTH-

NORTHWESTWARD BUT LIKELY NOT CONSOLIDATE ENOUGH TO TRANSITION INTO A

TROPICAL CYCLONE.FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER

CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO

DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE

ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED

TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT

TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (3) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

21.5N 118.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 117.4E, APPROXIMATELY 117 NM

SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS 95W AS A WEAK AREA OF LITTLE TO NO CONSOLIDATION.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT

WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 KNOTS OR LESS), UPPER-LEVEL

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE TRANSITS

NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO

MEDIUM.//

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