ABPW10 PGTW 171200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH

PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/171200Z-180600ZAUG2026//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR

10.1N 157.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM

NORTH OF POHNPEI. ANIMATED ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)

DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG A CONVERGENT

TROUGH AXIS ORIENTED ROUGHLY EAST-WEST. A 152158Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS

REVEALED 20-25 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT,

WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KTS), GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW

ALOFT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE

IN AGREEMENT THAT 92W WILL GRADUALLY COALESCE AND BEGIN TO INTENSIFY

OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED

AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR

1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL

CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.1N

132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 471 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MINAMI DALTO JIMA.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A POORLY

DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION ALONG

THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. A 170056Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALED A TROUGH-LIKE

ZONE WITH LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE AXIS AND 20-25 KT WESTERLY WINDS

APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA INDICATES LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15KTS),

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C), AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW

ALOFT, WHICH ARE TYPICALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, AN UPPER LEVEL

LOW RESIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. GLOBAL

DETERMINISTIC MODELS AGREE THAT 94W WILL DEVELOP CHARACTERISTICS OF A

MONSOON DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH A LOW PROBABILITY

OF TRANSITION TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS

ARE ESTIMATED AT 22 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS

ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 21.5N

118.2E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED

MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DISORGANIZED CONVECTION

PARTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE

PASSES BY ASCAT-B AT 170030Z, ASCAT-C AT 170130Z, AND OSCAT-3 AT

170430Z DEPICT UNREMARKABLE 5-15 KT WINDS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH

MASKED BY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR THE AREA

INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR (10-15KTS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN

AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL GRADUALLY COALESCE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS.

MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE

POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN

THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2) AND

PARA. 1.B.(3).//

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